Introduction to Social Systems Simulation
Introduction to Computer Simulation of Systems in Social Science
(All Examples from Social Science)

Copyright  ©  2001, Roland Werner, Ph.D.

Introduction

Purpose of Simulation

Structure - Flow - Change
Ideas
Theory/ Model
Simulation
Observation

Research Plan
Introduction
Proposal Writing
Limiting Scope of Research
Summary and Conclusion
How to Select what to Model
Designing the Model
States as Queues
Processes as Transitions between States
Arrows as Flow
What Kind of Information is Required
Data Mining in the Library
Data Mining on the Internet
Three Complex Models
Innovation Diffusion Model
Pig Feast in Big Man Societies
Child Abuse Model
Practice
Examples

The Systems Concept
System Elements
Relationship Among Elements
Process Flow (Time)
Growth
Competition
Wholeness, Sum, Mechanization, Centralization
Finality
Static Teleology
Transition Probability
Dynamic Teleology (Purposiveness)
Simplification
Complexity

Basic Concepts
Set Theory
Sample Space
Events
Functions
Introduction to Probability
Probability Space
Finite Probability Spaces
Finite Probability Spaces with Equally Likely Outcomes
Other Approaches for Assigning Probabilities to Events
Infinite Probability Spaces
Properties of Probability Functions
Counting Methods
Sampling and Counting
The Fundamental Principle of Counting
Factorial Notation
Counting Procedure Involving Order Restrictions
Counting Procedure Not Involving Order Restrictions
etc.
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability Applications
Multiplication Rule
Independent Events
etc.
Random Variables
Point and Distribution Functions
Concepts of Average
Mathematical Expectations
Variance
etc.

States as Queues
What is a Queuing Problem
How to describe a service activity
Customer arrival
A Simple Example:
Another Example:
Some Final considerations
States as Snapshots
How to Organize Parameters
How to Organize Assumptions
Processes as Change
How to Organize Parameters
How to Organize Assumptions
The Flow of Time

GESSIL 1.0
How to Represent the Model
Initial conditions
States as Queues
Processes with Transition Probability
Structured Programming Elements
Processes with Increased Complexity
Macros
Sun Microsystems Java(tm)
Platform Independent Simulation of Social Systems
Tentative Steps into the Future

Introduction to Computer Simulation
Planning Computer Simulation Experiments
Formulation of the Problem
Collection and Processing Real World Data
Formulation of Mathematical Models
Estimating of Parameters of Operating Characteristics from Real World Data
Evaluation of the Model and Parameter Estimates
Formulation of a Computer Simulation Program
Validation
Design of Simulation Experiment
Analysis of Simulated Data
Run the Simulation
Review Concept of Time
Process Dynamics
SPSS
Analysis of Captured Data

Evaluation

Comparison with the "Real" World

Analyzing and Interpretation

Introduction
Styles of Writing
Craft of Writing
Summary and Conclusion
Organizing the Simulation Report
Executive Summary

Feller, William, 1957, An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol.1 (Second Edition), John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Feller, William, 1966, An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol.2, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Goldberg, Samuel, 1960, Probability: An Introduction, Prentice- Hall, Inc.

Hastings, N.A.J. and Peacock, J.B., 1975, Statistical Distributions: A Handbook for Students and Practitioners, London, England: The Butterworth Group.

IBM, 1975, Structure Programming: Independent Study Program, IBM Corporation.

Lewis. T.G., 1975, Distribution Sampling for Computer Simulation, Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Company.

Naylor, Thomas H., et al., 1966, Computer Simulation Techniques,  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

von Bertalanffy, Ludwig, 1968, General Systems Theory, New York: George Braziller, Inc.

Werner, Oswald and Schoepfle, G. Mark, 1987, Systematic Fieldwork: Foundations of Ethnography and Interviewing, Vol. 1, Sage Publications,

Werner, Oswald and Schoepfle, G. Mark, 1987, Systematic Fieldwork: Ethnographic Analysis and Data Management, Vol. 1, Sage Publications,

Werner, Roland, 1974, State/ Process Modeling Techniques, unpublished manuscript.

Werner, Roland, 1977, Introduction to a General Systems Simulation Language: GESSIL 1.0(tm), San Diego: Social Systems Simulation Group.

Werner, Roland, 1986, Structured Modeling Concepts, unpublished manuscript.

Werner, Roland and Werner, Joan T., 1972, "A Model and Simulation of the Awareness Process within Innovation Diffusion: Summary of the Research Project," Proceedings: 5th Annual Simulation Symposium, New York: Gordon and Beach.

Werner, Roland and Werner, Joan T., 1972, A Pragmatic Approach to Social Systems Modeling and Simulation, San Diego: Social Systems Simulation Group.

Appendix A

Useful Statistical Distributions
Terms and Symbols
General Variate Relationships
Useful Probability Density Functions
Bernoulii Distribution
Beta Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Cauchy Distribution
Chi-squared Distribution
Discrete Uniform Distribution
Erlang Distribution
Exponential Distribution
Extreme Value Distribution
F Distribution
Gamma Distribution
Geometric Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
Logistic Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
Multinomial Distribution
Negative Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
Pareto Distribution
Pascal distribution
Poisson distribution
Power Function Distribution
Rectangular Distribution
Student's t Distribution
Weibull Distribution

Examples of Student Research Projects
Student A
Student B
Student C
Student D

About the Author

Social Systems Simulation Group P.O. Box 6904 San Diego, CA  92166-0904 Roland Werner, Principal Phone/FAX  (619) 660-1603