**Introduction to Social Systems Simulation**

Introduction to Computer Simulation of
Systems in Social Science

(All Examples from Social Science)

Copyright © 2001, Roland Werner, Ph.D.

**Introduction**

- Purpose of Simulation

Structure - Flow - Change

Ideas

Theory/ Model

Simulation

Observation

- Research Plan

- Introduction

Proposal Writing

Limiting Scope of Research

Summary and Conclusion

Designing the Model

- States as Queues

Processes as Transitions between States

Arrows as Flow

- Data Mining in the Library

Data Mining on the Internet

- Innovation Diffusion Model

Pig Feast in Big Man Societies

Child Abuse Model

Practice

Examples

- The Systems Concept

- System Elements

Relationship Among Elements

Process Flow (Time)

Competition

Wholeness, Sum, Mechanization, Centralization

Finality

- Static Teleology

- Transition Probability

- Simplification

Complexity

- Basic Concepts

- Set Theory

Sample Space

Events

Functions

- Probability Space

Finite Probability Spaces

Finite Probability Spaces with Equally Likely Outcomes

Other Approaches for Assigning Probabilities to Events

Infinite Probability Spaces

Properties of Probability Functions

- Sampling and Counting

The Fundamental Principle of Counting

Factorial Notation

Counting Procedure Involving Order Restrictions

Counting Procedure Not Involving Order Restrictions

etc.

- Conditional Probability Applications

Multiplication Rule

Independent Events

etc.

- Point and Distribution Functions

Concepts of Average

Mathematical Expectations

Variance

- States as Queues

- What is a Queuing Problem

How to describe a service activity

Customer arrival

A Simple Example:

Another Example:

Some Final considerations

- How to Organize Parameters

How to Organize Assumptions

- How to Organize Parameters

How to Organize Assumptions

- GESSIL 1.0

- How to Represent the Model

Initial conditions

States as Queues

Processes with Transition Probability

- Processes with Increased Complexity

Sun Microsystems Java(tm)

- Platform Independent Simulation of Social
Systems

Tentative Steps into the Future

- Introduction to Computer Simulation

Planning Computer Simulation Experiments

- Formulation of the Problem

Collection and Processing Real World Data

Formulation of Mathematical Models

Estimating of Parameters of Operating Characteristics from Real World Data

Evaluation of the Model and Parameter Estimates

Formulation of a Computer Simulation Program

Validation

Design of Simulation Experiment

Analysis of Simulated Data

- Review Concept of Time

SPSS

- Analysis of Captured Data

**Evaluation**

- Comparison with the "Real" World

- Analyzing and Interpretation

- Introduction

- Styles of Writing

Craft of Writing

Summary and Conclusion

Executive Summary

Feller, William, 1957, __An Introduction
to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol.1 (Second Edition)__,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Feller, William, 1966, __An Introduction
to Probability Theory and its Applications, Vol.2__, John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.

Goldberg, Samuel, 1960, __Probability:
An Introduction__, Prentice- Hall, Inc.

Hastings, N.A.J. and Peacock, J.B., 1975,
__Statistical
Distributions: A Handbook for Students and Practitioners__, London, England:
The Butterworth Group.

IBM, 1975, __Structure Programming: Independent
Study Program__, IBM Corporation.

Lewis. T.G., 1975, __Distribution Sampling
for Computer Simulation__, Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Company.

Naylor, Thomas H., et al., 1966, __Computer
Simulation Techniques__, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

von Bertalanffy, Ludwig, 1968, __General
Systems Theory__, New York: George Braziller, Inc.

Werner, Oswald and Schoepfle, G. Mark,
1987, __Systematic Fieldwork: Foundations of Ethnography and Interviewing,
Vol. 1__, Sage Publications,

Werner, Oswald and Schoepfle, G. Mark,
1987, __Systematic Fieldwork: Ethnographic Analysis and Data Management,
Vol. 1__, Sage Publications,

Werner, Roland, 1974, __State/ Process
Modeling Techniques__, unpublished manuscript.

Werner, Roland, 1977,__ Introduction to
a General Systems Simulation Language: GESSIL 1.0(tm)__, San Diego: Social
Systems Simulation Group.

Werner, Roland, 1986, __Structured Modeling
Concepts__, unpublished manuscript.

Werner, Roland and Werner, Joan T., 1972,
"A Model and Simulation of the Awareness Process within Innovation Diffusion:
Summary of the Research Project," __Proceedings: 5th Annual Simulation
Symposium__, New York: Gordon and Beach.

Werner, Roland and Werner, Joan T., 1972,
__A
Pragmatic Approach to Social Systems Modeling and Simulation__, San Diego:
Social Systems Simulation Group.

**Appendix A**

- Useful Statistical Distributions

- Terms and Symbols

General Variate Relationships

Useful Probability Density Functions

- Bernoulii Distribution

Beta Distribution

Binomial Distribution

Cauchy Distribution

Chi-squared Distribution

Discrete Uniform Distribution

Erlang Distribution

Exponential Distribution

Extreme Value Distribution

F Distribution

Gamma Distribution

Geometric Distribution

Hypergeometric Distribution

Logistic Distribution

Lognormal Distribution

Multinomial Distribution

Negative Binomial Distribution

Normal Distribution

Pareto Distribution

Pascal distribution

Poisson distribution

Power Function Distribution

Rectangular Distribution

Student's t Distribution

Weibull Distribution

- Examples of Student Research Projects

- Student A

Student B

Student C

Student D

**About the Author**

Social
Systems Simulation GroupP.O. Box 6904San Diego, CA 92166-0904Roland Werner, PrincipalPhone/FAX (619)
660-1603 |

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