TEEL, JAMES HOWARD; PHD

                         UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE, 1983

                         SOCIOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY (0938)
 

                         The exponential human population growth still looms as the greatest problem facing Bangladesh. The
                         public and private sectors have made population control a major target. But the same question remains:
                         Can the rapid population growth be controlled or impeded? If so, what methods are feasible and ethically
                         appropriate? How can results be measured? The population was over 43 million in 1951, 72 million in
                         1972, and 90 million in 1981 in an area with less than 56,000 square miles. Births and deaths remain high
                         and per capita income less than $100 per year. This research takes a social systems approach and uses a
                         non-linear dynamic modelling process with thirty-six variables to describe a complex social system and its
                         impact on population growth and control from 1972 to 2002 A.D. The model has five functional sectors:
                         (1) population; (2) female education; (3) family planning and health services; (4) economic production;
                         and (5) agriculture. Using data indicators of the five functional sectors three dynamic simulations were
                         conducted: (1) a baseline model; (2) an individual sector impact model; and (3) a multiple sector impact
                         model. The results of the baseline model, given present condition, revealed a population of 155 million
                         by 2002 AD, with the beginning of a precipitious decline in all positive social indicators after the
                         population reaches 120 million. The results of the individual sector impact model shows 'increased
                         female education' as the strongest single impact variable. For example, 25 percent increase in female
                         education alone slows population growth by twenty million persons over the thirty-year period. The family
                         planning and health services sector with a 20 percent increase in services and the economic sector with a
                         2.5 percent increase in the gross domestic product each contribute to a reduction in the population of
                         five million. The agricultural sector with a 2.5 percent increase in food production increases the
                         population by five million over the same period. The results of the multiple sector impact model is a
                         reduction in total population of thirty-five million from 1972 to 2002 according to the assumptions of the
                         baseline model.

Social Systems Simulation Group P.O. Box 6904 San Diego, CA  92166-0904 Roland Werner, Principal Phone/FAX  (619) 660-1603