SHACKMAN, GENE; PHD
STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT ALBANY, 1994
SOCIOLOGY, GENERAL (0626); SOCIOLOGY, THEORY AND METHODS (0344); ECONOMICS,
THEORY (0511)
What is it that accounts for economic growth? In particular, how can economic
growth of the modern
industrialized system be explained. Typical economic theories focus on labor,
capital and technology,
but economists also recognize the importance of institutional factors and social
systems, notions more
usually considered from a sociological view. My intention here is to assess
the utility of one sociological
approach, World Systems Theory, in explaining long term growth patterns. In
particular, Wallerstein's
(1980, 1984, 1987) World System Theory uses mechanisms which are said to produce
long waves, or
long cycles, in economic growth. In this dissertation, time series analysis
is used to study long term
economic growth of the industrial system over a 120 year period. A repeated
moving average, or
Kolmagorov-Zurbenko filter is applied to GDP and GNP data of various 'world'
units to determine whether
this long wave exists, and how important it may be in the long term pattern.
Time series analysis shows,
first, that almost all of the overall long term pattern can be described by
an on average constant growth
pattern, with no reference to long waves. Further, after this long term constant
growth pattern is
removed, the long wave does in fact exist, but accounts for a very small proportion
(about seven percent)
of the remaining pattern. Long waves, it is argued, do exist, but are not particularly
useful in describing
the long term growth patterns. This dissertation further suggests that World-System
Theory, as it
depends to a high degree on long waves and associated mechanisms, is not useful
in explaining long
term growth patterns of the industrial system. On the other hand, there are
several economic theories
which are useful ways of explaining long term economic patterns. Theories which
look at growth as a
more ad hoc process, depending on specific events and situations, are much more
reasonable
explanations. Sociologists who wish to explain long term social processes including
economic growth or
social change, should become familiar with these economic models of growth,
rather than with
World-System Theory.
Social
Systems Simulation Group
P.O. Box 6904 San Diego, CA 92166-0904 Roland Werner, Principal Phone/FAX (619) 660-1603 |