Haggblom, Ted Aron; PhD
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, 1996
BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MARKETING (0338); BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, GENERAL
New Products are often vital to the success of the firm and marketers must be
concerned with the rate of
diffusion, or marketplace acceptance, of a new product. Previous studies of
diffusion have generally
regarded the innovation as a single product diffusing unchanged throughout the
population of potential
adopters. Under this static product view, potential adopters were assumed to
evaluate the product and
make a single adopt/nonadopt decision. This research proposes a dynamic view
of diffusion that allows
consideration of successive generations of a new product. Conceptualizing the
innovation in
evolutionary terms means incorporating into the adoption process a timing decision
that permits the
potential adopter various postponement options. An experiment was designed to
simulate the decision
facing a potential adopter confronted with successive generations of a new product.
A sequential logit
model was used to analyze the influence of new product characteristics on both
the evaluation and
timing stages of the decision process. The results indicate that product characteristics
have differential
impacts on the two stages and that a favorable attitude toward a new product
does not preclude
postponement of adoption. This model helps explain the frequently observed time
lag between
awareness and eventual adoption of an innovation. The model was also used to
test the hypothesis that
positive disconfirmation of performance expectations has an inverted U-shaped
moderating effect on the
positive relationship between performance and both evaluation and timing. After
manipulating next
generation performance expectations in the experiment, the results confirmed
this effect. The
implication is that better than expected performance improvements may come as
a pleasant surprise,
adding to the positive influence of performance on evaluation and adoption timing.
However, products
that are perceived to be improving much more rapidly than anticipated may create
a dissonance that
inhibits the otherwise positive relationship between performance and the likelihood
of a favorable
attitude and subsequent adoption.
Social
Systems Simulation Group
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