A study on multilevel substitution models of innovation diffusion: A new approach of modelling

                         Guo, Jian; MMS

                         CARLETON UNIVERSITY (CANADA), 1998
                         BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MARKETING (0338)

                         One of the major tasks of the modern firms is the development of new products. Forecasting the sales of
                         these new products is of critical importance to diffusion models make forecasts or present a description
                         of the diffusion process but few of these models deal with the multilevel substitution phenomenon. This
                         thesis focuses on developing a new approach to estimating the parameters of diffusion models for
                         describing multilevel substitution and comparing the predictive ability of selected models with that of a
                         new one. Two sets of sales data, Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and Tire Cord fabric, have
                         been selected for testing. The findings of this study suggest that (1) new models built by new approach
                         have better predictive ability than other selected models, (2) the internal influence of diffusion process
                         decreases and external influence of diffusion process increases over product generations.

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