BHATIA, KEITH; DBA

                        NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

                         Technological substitution affects the demand and supply curve for every firm or industry. The ability to
                         forecast technological substitution enables strategic planners to develop trends and focus product
                         development for their specific technological application. The goal of this study was to understand the
                         relationship between technological substitution and new product growth. This relationship is a significant
                         input into an organization's strategic development. The specific relationship under analysis is between
                         technological substitution and diffusion of innovation, and was the basis of the hypotheses. The
                         research question is defined around the prediction of technological substitution and the ability to
                         forecast potential adopters. This study focuses within a single high technology market that has both
                         stable and new technologies. In an environment of many new technological introductions, there is an
                         expectation that there will be a displacement of a technology. This means that over a certain period of
                         time in which there are many technological introductions, the coexistence with an older technology
                         would be rare. The Norton and Bass (1987) model is the only attempt at linking the substitution and
                         diffusion of innovation areas. However, Norton and Bass (1987) only looked at simple device
                         substitution. This study uses the models developed from Fisher and Pry (1971) and Bass (1969), which
                         was the basis for the Norton and Bass (1987) model and expands the concept to technology
                         applications. The high technology market observed in this study is the land mobile radio communications
                         market. The land mobile radio communications market has different technological approaches with a rapid
                         increase in technological developments which makes it a prime market for technological substitution. The
                         model used can identify the technological paths that define the technological substitution point. In
                         previous work a large amount of data was necessary. In this case, a limited amount of data was used and
                         good results were obtained. The study has shown that within the mobile communications technology
                         applications, that previous adopters of one technology will be substituted by the potential adopters of a
                         different technology in a predicted time frame.

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